“How Election Results Could Impact Bitcoin’s Short-Term Price Movement”
Bitcoin’s BTC/USD price direction could change dramatically depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.
According to Benzinga, the race appears to be evenly balanced, and market sentiment has already factored in a potential Trump victory, which might result in a major gain for Bitcoin.
“A Trump victory could see Bitcoin rally by $5,000 to $10,000, while a Harris victory could see Bitcoin drop by $10,000 to $20,000,” says to Stuart Connolly, Chief Investment Officer at Deus X Capital.
Connolly also stated that Bitcoin’s price trend might continue to rise, projecting that it will hit $150,000 within the next year regardless of the election outcome, given the broader market factors at play.
In a message to cryptomantra experts stated that Bitcoin’s current low volatility levels signal market caution.
This implies a level of uncertainty as investors await the election results, which may influence short-term market movements. Bitfinex analysts believe that a rise in volatility would be appropriate as election dynamics develop; nevertheless, they warn that if volatility remains missing, it could foreshadow a deeper fall for Bitcoin on shorter timescales.
“Apathy in the options market to price movements often reflects a more bearish sentiment than strong put buying,” they noted, implying that in the absence of volatility, the market may lean towards a correction.
They also commented on the altcoin market, pointing out that non-Bitcoin assets are expected to stay weak in the run-up to the election.
Altcoins, particularly those outside the top ten by market capitalisation, have fallen by 45% since March, indicating that investor caution in altcoin investments will continue.
Fairlead Strategies’ technical experts have also expressed caution.
In a message to Benzinga, they remain neutral on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, despite the cryptocurrency recently testing resistance near $67,300.
The firm’s analysis shows that momentum has weakened, and while Bitcoin’s weekly MACD indicator is still positive, the monthly MACD has been going lower for several months, indicating a loss of strength behind Bitcoin’s cyclical upswing.
“The slowing momentum supports our neutral long-term bias,” Fairlead analysts explained.
Initial support is seen near the 50-day moving average, or $65,100, with secondary support at the weekly cloud level of $59,700.
Fairlead’s examination of Ether paints a similar worrisome picture.
Analysts believe that if Ether falls below this level, it may indicate a short-term bearish trend, with a retest of the longer-term support zone in the $2,030 to $2,141 range.
Ether’s ongoing slump since March has hampered its recovery potential, with analysts stating that a significant catalyst would be necessary to restore investor confidence.
“The indicators suggest that there is a good chance of a retest of long-term support in the $2030-$2141 zone,” they added, emphasising Ether’s weaker position in comparison to Bitcoin.
The influence of the U.S. election on Bitcoin and broader crypto markets is expected to be a primary topic of discussion at the Cryptomantra Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.